The new Elway Poll synopsis begins with the news:
This was never going to be easy for Rob McKenna. Long considered the front‐runner in the race for Governor, the Attorney General is trying to do what no Republican has done since 1980—get elected Governor of Washington state. About 1 in 5 of the state’s current voters were not yet born in 1980. After having led the race for the last year, McKenna trailed Democrat Jay Inslee by 43‐36% in The Elway Poll completed last night.
Indeed, after trailing all year (or edging up to dead even), Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee has gone up by seven points. Elway attributes McKenna's bad showing to a collapse among Independent voters.
McKenna led among Independents by 42‐29% in June, but Inslee led Independents by 31‐29% this month. Meanwhile, the number of undecided Independents jumped from 29% last month to 40% this month.
A big problem for McKenna are his numbers in King County. McKenna's advantage all along had been his appeal (as a moderate with a focus on education) to siphon off all-important King County votes from Democrat Inslee. The new Elway numbers don't bode well for McKenna, who was once near 40 percent. After stalling, he is now dropping.
Inslee in Seattle (57‐24%), King County outside
Of course, Inslee has been up on TV for a couple of weeks now and McKenna just debuted his TV ad this week.
The Elway Poll was done between July 18-22. It has a 5 percent margin of error.