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Seattle Home Prices: The Lowest Since 2005

Seattle home prices have hit lows unseen since April 2005, according to a newsletter published by Redfin yesterday. Seattle’s recent home price drops are among some of the more dramatic in the nation, according to analysis accompanying the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, which released its latest info on Wednesday. While Case-Shiller is only releasing January data now—and sales […]

Is this house worth 25 percent less than when I bought it?

Seattle Times business columnist Jon Talton should have added his angry signature to the harsh letter that state legislators sent to the Port of Seattle last Friday. Raising conflict of interest concerns about Port CEO Tay Yoshitani's side gig as a board member for shipping logistics company Expeditors International, thirteen state legislators, headed up by government appropriations chair Rep. Zack Hudgins (D-11, Tukwila), sent a later to all five Port commissioners, writing: "It appears to the public that Mr. Yoshitani may directly and personally benefit by giving Expeditors’ customers a competitive advantage over other Port of Seattle customers, and as Port CEO he has the power to prioritize his personal profit over the public mission of the taxpayer-supported Port of Seattle." After Port Commissioner Tom Albro dismissed the concerns yesterday afternoon, Talton jumped in this morning, slamming the Port for being publicly tone deaf. It's a must read. Not only does Talton say Albro's response "doesn't pass the smell test," he goes on to put Albro's oblivious response—the deal "was  reviewed by the port's general counsel to ensure compliance with the port's Code of Conduct" —in the context of the Port's record lately: losing business to Tacoma, belligerence over the arena proposal, and its callous handling of contract truckers. Talton writes: What are the port leaders, and specifically Yoshitani, a smart and capable man, thinking? The seaport has just suffered the loss of a major portion of its container business, with the move of the Grand Alliance to Tacoma. In the dispute over the horrid conditions facing drayage truck drivers, a shameful example of the exploitation of "independent contractors," the port came off as insensitive and out of touch. Meanwhile, the Century Agenda, while a fine aspirational document, still lacks specifics about how the seaport will face growing competitive threats. Among them: the wider Panama Canal, Prince Rupert and Tacoma. Amid all this, the port chose a very public battle against the proposed Sonics arena, as if it's an "either/or" choice, rather than working constructively behind the scenes to ensure improved infrastructure and protection of industrial zoning. These challenges wouldn't seem to leave much "on his own time" time for Yoshitani to be moonlighting. It would be harsh to wonder if Yoshitani sees disarray and dysfunction at his employer and has decided to cash in while he can. But people are wondering just that. It's time for the port to remember, as it parses "conflicts of interest," that it serves the public interest. As we noted in Fizz, we have a message in to Hudgins seeking a response to Albro. UDATE: Hudgins told me: I appreciate that the Port Commissioners took our concerns seriously, and explained the process to us concerning how the Port of Seattle CEO was allowed to take a position as a director for one of the Ports major customers while maintaining his full time tax payer supported position.  My concern still exists that this appears to be a conflict of interest and that it is often important to go above and beyond the law in order to ensure public confidence in the Port of Seattle operations.  I hope that the Commissioners continue to watch this issue, and perhaps have a public hearing to see if the public thinks it appears to be a conflict of interest.  I am happy to have my confidence reinforced by the fact that both legislators and commissioners want the Port of Seattle to continue as a vibrant economic engine responsible for many jobs in our region.

Seattle home prices have hit lows unseen since April 2005, according to a newsletter published by Redfin yesterday. Seattle’s recent home price drops are among some of the more dramatic in the nation, according to analysis accompanying the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, which released its latest info on Wednesday. While Case-Shiller is only releasing January data now—and sales and prices tend to pick up steam as spring heads into summer—the new figures are fresh reminders that we’re still in a fragile real estate market.

Depending on how you choose to read the data, you can see positive news in the new Case-Shiller numbers—like the fact that home prices have had eight consecutive months of gains, as the Seattle Times notes—or bad news, like the fact that most cities in the index are still selling homes at prices about 30 percent below their peak levels.

Case-Shiller data functions as a sort of census of how the whole country is doing with this crazy real estate situation. Based on the latest monthly numbers for all 20 cities, as of January 2010, average home prices in the U.S. are similar to where they were in … the fall of 2003. You know, back during the Bush Administration, before the iPhone and Twitter, back when Seattle was a two-newspaper town.

In other words, things aren’t looking very cheerful—at least if you’re comparing today’s prices to those of yesteryear. For the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller index, June to July of 2006 represented the height of the market and August 2009 represented the trough. Between those two periods, the 20 cities together have seen prices fall 32.6%. During the months that have followed, recovery has been tepid: Case-Shiller says that the 20 cities’ combined prices are still down 29.6% from their peaks.

The question, then, becomes: What prices constitute a “new normal” for the housing market? Is it possible that prices will never return to their prior peaks, and if so, when is that going to happen? Are eight months’ worth of mild gains—albeit gains of less than a percent here and less than a percent there—a sign of an improving market, stabilization, or, well, of nothing at all?

Seattle has long been described as a kind of “last in, last out” case with respect to the economic bubble—a city where home prices took a little bit longer to rise, the real estate downturn set in a bit later, and the recovery is a bit of a wild card. Case-Shiller points out that Seattle—along with Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Tampa—belongs to a cluster of cities where prices peaked in 2006-2007 rather than earlier.  Since then, prices in metro Seattle have declined 24.6% as of January 2010.

The latest numbers provide more I-told-you-so ammunition for bubble watchers and those with housing schadenfreude. For those trying to sell, the stats provide yet another opportunity to “reset price expectations” with a real estate agent. And for those with a creepy habit of checking their own home values on sites like Zillow.com (guilty),  and seeing that the numbers are heading south and staying there, the Case-Shiller figures help explain what looks like a flattening-out of value at a newer, lower threshold.

The New York Times also reported on the new Case-Shiller data, noting that the last few months have not seen rising home prices and that homebuyer tax credits (extended to April 30) didn’t necessarily help spur sales. The Times cites an analyst who posits that the U.S. housing market could see a “double dip” in housing prices, where gains are undercut by additional dips as numbers are adjusted for seasonality and the waning impact of tax-credit fueled buying is factored into the math used by the indices.