Jolt
Tuesday Jolt: Over the Counter?
Today's loser: State Sen. Michael Baumgartner.
At the risk of piling on to our Jolt yesterday: State Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R-6), who's challenging US Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), shouldn't be too excited about recent polling results that found him "just" 12 points behind Cantwell (who belongs, let's remember, to a Congress with an overall approval rating of 6 percent).
Nor should he be declaring victory over an "informed" poll (one that featured a negative message about Cantwell and a positive message about Baumgartner) showing Baumgartner "virtually neck and neck with" Cantwell, at 39 percent to Cantwell's 44 percent.
But don't just listen to us. We asked Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in D.C about Baumgartner's stats.:
"While a 12-point spread isn’t 'bad,' considering that no one knows Baumgartner yet, he doesn’t hold Cantwell under 51 percent; she’s at 51 percent," Duffy says.
"As for the Moore Information poll"---the one showing Baumgartner trailing by five points among voters "informed" with a positive message about the challenger---"the way Baumgartner reported the results is pretty telling." Duffy says that although releasing "informed" polling numbers is routine, "without knowing the statements presented, it’s hard to assess how reasonable the result is. Did they tell voters, for example, that Cantwell kicks puppies and that Baumgartner is an Eagle Scout who spends his spare time helping little old ladies cross the street?"
Additionally, Duffy says, "Having the initial ballot test"---the "uninformed," straight Baumgartner-vs.-Cantwell question that opened the poll---"would have been much more helpful. That Baumgartner didn’t release it would suggest that the margin was pretty wide.
"The bottom line is that Baumgartner has a lot of work to do to prove he can run a credible statewide race and give Cantwell a competitive contest. And, Washington is just a tough state for Republicans in any circumstance, but especially in a presidential year. Whether Cantwell is up 12 points, or 22 points, she retains the advantage here."
Today's (maybe) winner: Women who need emergency contraception.
Crossing fingers here, but the Federal Drug Administration is expected to vote tomorrow on whether to make emergency contraception (AKA Plan B) available to women of all ages on drugstore shelves, rather than requiring a pharmacist to dispense the pill, which prevents pregnancy by inhibiting ovulation, fertilization, or the implantation of a fertilized egg in the uterus. Abortion opponents oppose emergency contraception because they argue that using it to avoid pregnancy constitutes abortion (false ), and because they think increasing access to birth control will lead teenage girls to have more sex (also false).
At the state level, a group of pharmacists are arguing in federal court that a pharmacy board rule requiring pharmacies---though not individual pharmacists---to fill prescriptions for EC violates the pharmacists' First Amendment right to freedom of religion. We have a call out to Lisa Stone, an attorney whose defending the state rules and the director of the women's rights group Legal Voice, to find out what the implications will be if the FDA allows over-the-counter sales of emergency contraception.
At the risk of piling on to our Jolt yesterday: State Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R-6), who's challenging US Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), shouldn't be too excited about recent polling results that found him "just" 12 points behind Cantwell (who belongs, let's remember, to a Congress with an overall approval rating of 6 percent).
Nor should he be declaring victory over an "informed" poll (one that featured a negative message about Cantwell and a positive message about Baumgartner) showing Baumgartner "virtually neck and neck with" Cantwell, at 39 percent to Cantwell's 44 percent.
But don't just listen to us. We asked Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in D.C about Baumgartner's stats.:
"While a 12-point spread isn’t 'bad,' considering that no one knows Baumgartner yet, he doesn’t hold Cantwell under 51 percent; she’s at 51 percent," Duffy says.
"As for the Moore Information poll"---the one showing Baumgartner trailing by five points among voters "informed" with a positive message about the challenger---"the way Baumgartner reported the results is pretty telling." Duffy says that although releasing "informed" polling numbers is routine, "without knowing the statements presented, it’s hard to assess how reasonable the result is. Did they tell voters, for example, that Cantwell kicks puppies and that Baumgartner is an Eagle Scout who spends his spare time helping little old ladies cross the street?"
Additionally, Duffy says, "Having the initial ballot test"---the "uninformed," straight Baumgartner-vs.-Cantwell question that opened the poll---"would have been much more helpful. That Baumgartner didn’t release it would suggest that the margin was pretty wide.
"The bottom line is that Baumgartner has a lot of work to do to prove he can run a credible statewide race and give Cantwell a competitive contest. And, Washington is just a tough state for Republicans in any circumstance, but especially in a presidential year. Whether Cantwell is up 12 points, or 22 points, she retains the advantage here."
Today's (maybe) winner: Women who need emergency contraception.
Crossing fingers here, but the Federal Drug Administration is expected to vote tomorrow on whether to make emergency contraception (AKA Plan B) available to women of all ages on drugstore shelves, rather than requiring a pharmacist to dispense the pill, which prevents pregnancy by inhibiting ovulation, fertilization, or the implantation of a fertilized egg in the uterus. Abortion opponents oppose emergency contraception because they argue that using it to avoid pregnancy constitutes abortion (false ), and because they think increasing access to birth control will lead teenage girls to have more sex (also false).
At the state level, a group of pharmacists are arguing in federal court that a pharmacy board rule requiring pharmacies---though not individual pharmacists---to fill prescriptions for EC violates the pharmacists' First Amendment right to freedom of religion. We have a call out to Lisa Stone, an attorney whose defending the state rules and the director of the women's rights group Legal Voice, to find out what the implications will be if the FDA allows over-the-counter sales of emergency contraception.
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