There seemed to be some good news today: The state has an extra $340 million due to decreasing caseload projections. "Obviously it means we don't have to do most of the draconian cuts in the Governor's budget," state senate ways and means committee chair Sen. Ed Murray (D-43) says. In her $2 billion package of proposed cuts , Gov. Chris Gregoire requested a $334 million cut from K-12, for example. Today's news gives the legislature the flexibility to avoid making that kind of cut.

But let's not forget the obvious. This is a Grover Norquist wet dream about the compounding effects of suffocating government.

Part of the reason caseloads are dropping is that the state has been cutting services for several years now. Last year, for example, the $4.6 billion in overall cuts included a $97 million cut to longterm care services; $129 million to the Basic Health Plan; and $116 million to the Disability Lifeline—all through restricting eligibility and straight up service cuts.[pullquote]"The fact that you're serving less people is because you're dismantling the services."[/pullquote]

"The fact that you're serving less people is because you're dismantling the services," says Kim Justice, an analyst with the lefty Washington State Budget & Policy Center.

She's right. Projections of people who actually get to use the Basic Health Plan may be going down, but the number of uninsured people in the state has actually increased by 170,000 since the great recession started in 2008. There are roughly 880,000 uninsured people in the state.

Cuts to social services go a long way in explaining, for example, why medical assistance to families caseloads are down by 10,000 cases or nearly 3 percent.

To be fair, case load projections are a complicated science, and previous budget cuts and restrictions don't explain it all; the current projected drop, for example, is a drop from November predictions—which did try to factor in previous budget cuts. But certainly, when you increase co-pays and tighten restrictions, use spirals downward.

Looking at the 2.9 percent drop in medical assistance caseloads, for example, today's report explained that both last session's new rules—and something as unpredictable as a drop in pregnancy rates—played a role:  "The variance is related to lower entries into and higher exits from the caseload, likely due to the multitude of policy changes impacting the TANF grant caseload such as the reduction in the grant payment amount ... Correspondingly the step adjustment is delayed and the impact reduced from a monthly average of 300 to 260 fewer pregnancies on the ... Pregnant caseload for the 2011-13 Biennium."

Budget chief Murray acknowledges that the Norquist equation is "absolutely right," but says: "The thing to remember is last year when we came in here, the governor was proposing eliminating those programs, and we preserved them."

His point: Some of those in need are still being served.