1. Here's more of a Morning Jolt than a Morning Fizz: Mayor Mike McGinn, who polls have shown down by double digits, is only trailing challenger state Sen. Ed Murray by four points, 33-29, according to a poll released by KIRO-TV.
Those numbers challenge recent KING 5/Survey USA polling, along with a recent Public Policy Polling poll, that have shown Murray far ahead of McGinn—by as much as 22 points.
We'd go ahead and credit McGinn's dramatic bounce to the pro-McGinn email that McGinn supporters were forwarding around this weekend which quotes PubliCola at length, praising McGinn's commitment to urbansim, but sigh, KIRO reports that the polling was done in early October. (The McGinn campaign email also quotes the PI.com's Joel Connelly praising McGinn, by the way)
The KIRO poll found that 38 percent were undecided, a stat that also contradicts the KING 5 and PPP polls, which showed around 15 to 18 percent undecided.Here's what that pro-Murray analysis misses: McGinn isn't the McGinn of 2009 either—when he was an unknown outsider who many thought would be in over his head as mayor.
2. We're not sure what to make of the big discrepancy in the polling, but we will say this: One argument the pro-Murray side has been making is that Murray is not Mallahan—meaning, McGinn's supposedly thrilling underdog victory in 2009 was a fluke because his opponent Joe Mallahan was an underwhelming, unprepared, wallflower of a candidate. Murray, they point out, is a successful state legislator.
But here's what that pro-Murray analysis misses: McGinn isn't the McGinn of 2009 either—when he was an unknown outsider who many thought would be in over his head as mayor. Regardless of what you think of McGinn's style, he's got a record of running the city now, and with no snowstorm-style disaster under his belt, and to the contrary, cranes dotting the skyline in a city that appears to be cooking (unemployment is below five percent), he's not the neophyte he was in '09.
In short, while Murray ain't no Mallahan, McGinn ain't no McGinn. Another data point from the KIRO poll: 54 percent rated McGinn's effectiveness between a 4 and 7 (1 being "not at all" and 10 being "very") when asked how effective a mayor he's been.)
3. Speaking of campaign emails, Peter Steinbrueck, the former Seattle City Council member and mayoral candidate himself during this year's primary(he finished third), followed up the Murray endorsement he made last week with an email of his own. Citing his allegiance with Murray on supporting the maritime economy and involving neighborhoods in development and planning decisions, Steinbrueck urged his supporters to vote for Murray.
In fact, when it comes to neighborhood planning (Steinbrueck's own top issue during the primary), Steinbrueck said he'd been working with Murray and his campaign team to help develop the neighborhood policy paper Murray released last week. Wading into the thorny issue of growth, Steinbrueck wrote:
Ed Murray really understands that Seattle’s unique neighborhoods are what make our city great. Something that seems to have been forgotten over the last two administrations. Whether it’s South Park or Madison Park, our neighborhoods are where city life happens, and are the smallest definable unit of community: Neighborhoods give life and flavor to our city. Smart growth is urban expansion designed so more people live and work more compactly on a human scale. For weeks I have been working with Ed and his team on a better approach to neighborhoods that respects the opinions of the people who live there and want to have a voice in their future. That’s why we did all that neighborhood planning in the 1990’s and have a citywide comprehensive plan.