SurveyUSA has released more detailed data about the poll it released yesterday for KING 5. (That poll, as we reported, found that Mayor Mike McGinn has just 15 percent support in a hypothetical nine-way race that includes former King County executive Ron Sims, who also polled at 15 percent. We called the poll's topline conclusions bad news for McGinn, comparing his results to those of former mayor Greg Nickels, who routinely polled between 20 and 25 percent before losing his reelection bid in the 2009 primary).
If Sims doesn't get into the mayor's race, his decision would mostly benefit McGinn (yet another reason for the former county exec to jump in). According to the poll, without Sims in the race, McGinn would get 19 percent to Burgess' 11 percent, with state Sen. Ed Murray and former city council member Peter Steinbrueck close behind, at 10 percent each. (Murray, Steinbrueck, and Burgess are all statistically tied, in a poll that has a margin of error of nearly 4 percent.)
The arena is popular, but it isn't a game changer. A third of voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate who backed the arena proposal, compared to 28 percent who said they'd be less likely to support an arena backer (the rest didn't care or were undecided). That's another statistical tie; of the current batch of candidates, McGinn is the most vocal arena supporter, and Steinbrueck is the most vocal arena opponent.
In a race with Sims in the mix, more women (41 percent) than men (27 percent) said they were still undecided, but among decided voters, far more men (19 percent) than women (11 percent) supported McGinn. The only candidates supported by more women than men were Kate Martin (5 percent, to 0 percent men) and Sims (15 percent to 14 percent).
Not surprisingly, McGinn fared well among young (18-34-year-old) voters, polling at 18 percent, while Steinbrueck polled well among older voters, with 18 percent support among those over 65. Given that primary votes tend to skew older, though, that could be good news for Steinbrueck. Black voters tended to support the two black candidates, with 19 percent supporting Sims, and 22 percent supporting Harrell.
Without Sims in the race, according to KING 5's web site (which does not include any detailed data or breakdown of support), most Sims voters would go to McGinn, giving him 19 percent support (still at the low end of former mayor Nickels' polling numbers before he lost in the primary in 2009), with Burgess following at 11 percent, Steinbrueck at 10 percent, and Murray at 8 percent.
(As we noted yesterday, the poll showed that the plurality of Sims' supporters would go to Steinbrueck and McGinn; however, since that poll included just 96 voters, it has a huge margin of error—10.2 percent).
As we noted in Fizz this morning, the poll put McGinn's disapproval rating at 43 percent, compared to 18 percent for city attorney Pete Holmes. (Holmes and McGinn are currently in the middle of an ugly public spat over who has the authority to approve of an oversight plan for SPD). A fairly similar number of respondents said they disapproved of the city council as McGinn—37 percent. And, in good news for Sims, fully 54 percent said they approved of the job Sims did as county executive, and only 19 percent disapproved.
Full poll results and crosstabs here.